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Thursday, March 3, 2011

The unofficial Apple fan site entry #1

So iPad 2 was revealed yesterday. It's not like we didn't expect most of the improvements.

Two things stood out about the presentation, one obvious and one not at all obvious:

1.) Steve was looking good. Whatever it is he's dealing with, the reduction of day to day stress seems to be having a positive result. I hope the situation resolves and he's able to live a long and happy life.

2.) There's been a big deal touting how Android has eclipsed the iOS as primary operating system for smart phones in the fourth calendar quarter of 2010. I say big deal. For starters no one could gauge the effect of Verizon's adoption of the iPhone 4, and those figures will make a significant difference for calendar quarter 1 of 2011.

But that's not what everyone missed.

The biggest thing about the iPad 2 is...wait for it...Facetime. Yep, Facetime. Consider this: It's one thing to see someone as you speak to them on a smart phone. Fair enough. You can squint. Along comes this new innovation and presto! You're talking to someone and you're almost at full size, like looking at someone's face in person! Best of all, you can do this anywhere there is wi-fi or a Bluetooth connection without necessarily having to get a data plan. If you DO choose to get a plan, you can pretty-much get rid of your phone (at least anyone without the iPhone won't need their phone because this will supplant it). That's why Verizon and AT&T are phasing out their unlimited data plans. They saw this coming.

The iPad 2 is really a phone killer in disguise, just as the iPad 1 was a netbook (and to a certain degree notebook) killer.

I predicted that the share price for Apple should be somewhere between $400 and $450 by the end of calendar quarter 1 of 2011. That's 28 days from now as this is being written. I will wager you that I'm closer to fact than fiction on this based on today's close ($459.56, up $7.44), and I will fearlessly predict that on March 11 to 13 between Apple's stores, Apple on-line, AT&T, Verizon, Best Buy and Wal-Mart (assuming that everyone gets the units for sale at the same time) that fully 1.5 million of them are sold and activated within the first weekend. That'll be a record we can all live with!

Any opinions?


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